Noelle-Neumann, Elisabeth

founder and director of the Allensbach Institute, pollster, political scientist, visiting professor at the University of Chicago

(Vidéo) [ENG] Elizabeth Noelle-Neumann - Entretien "L'Allemagne réunifiée post-élections"

Artesquieu · May 4, 2021 · partial coverage

• Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann
• Allensbach
• German reunification
• 1990 election
• Helmut Kohl
• opinion polls
• Greens
• East Germany
• national pride
• C-SPAN

Coverage note: full (about twenty-two minutes; YouTube auto-generated captions without punctuation, with some recognition errors)

Core ideas

The first all-German election, as seen by the pollsters. Interviewed after the 2 December 1990 election won by the coalition led by Chancellor Helmut Kohl's Christian Democrats, Noelle-Neumann says it was the most emotional of the nine general elections her institute had covered in forty years, with a strong sense of historical importance. After the fall of the Wall, the Allensbach Institute built a network of some 600 interviewers in East Germany (the first time in decades), a population used to dictatorship but happy to be interviewed and who trusted the Allensbach name from West German television. The institute's March 1990 forecast for the East German election, which surprised everyone by predicting a conservative alliance victory, and its 10th national forecast, accurate to about 1.5 points, show "we can trust our method". Turnout was 77 per cent.

Parties and Kohl's East German popularity. She explains the German proportional system (four parties in the West, five in the East), the Greens' failure to reach the 5 per cent threshold (young, left-leaning, "religion" in the beauty of socialism, depressed after the collapse of socialism), and the liberals' role as kingmakers. Kohl won the same share in East and West but for different reasons: in the East he was seen as the West German leader who understood their cause (his Dresden speech on 19 December 1989, tears in his eyes). Personal appearances at six huge rallies, where he calmed rather than excited crowds (unlike a dictator), turned the East German vote, from about 50 per cent for the Social Democrats and 24 for the Christian Democrats in February to 46 and 22 in the opposite direction. Polls influence journalists more than voters, she says; 66 per cent of Germans like opinion polls.

National pride, concerns, optimism. Only about 21 per cent of Germans say they are proud to be German (versus 85-95 per cent of Americans), unchanged since reunification; seeing the national flag makes about 65 per cent happy, up from 20 per cent. East Germans are, on balance, happy about reunification but worried by rising crime, unemployment and the former state security; West Germans put the environment and the Gulf first. She argues the election was fought not on rational arguments but on optimism versus pessimism, the Christian Democrats standing for optimism, German unity and the social market economy.

Excerpts